After a good weekend of College Football officially going 3/4 on my picks for Saturday and also hitting on my Louisville tip in the weekly Volatility Report I had a dreadful Sunday.  Missed on 3/4 of Sunday’s picks so I have a lot to make up for here.  As a result I thought about this long and hard and in the end realized it comes down to this.  You have the Leagues #1 offense matched up against the League’s 25th ranked defense.  That isn’t good for at least a 2 touchdown win at home in front of a national audience?  The only thing to think long and hard on is weather or not to take the over at 55 1/2.  Don’t overthink this, lay the points.  The Prophet Picks: Saints 38 Falcons 20. 

Giants -1 over EAGLES – Two main thoughts here.  1)  Do you think the Giants lose 3 games in a row?  Me neither.  2)  The Eagles are coming off a short week and another division matchup.  The Giants take this one.

Miami +3.5 over JETS - This Dolphins team is actually pretty good.  Its now November and the elements are ticking up in the meadowlands.  Lets see how Sanchize handles this.  I think the dolphins sweep the season series.

Denver +4 over BALTIMORE – Josh McDaniels has this Denver team looking like the 2001 Pats.  They are winning by competing in all 3 phases of the game (offense, defense, and special teams).  Look for this to be a close one and if Denver doesn’t win outright they’ll lose by a FG.  Take the points.

ARIZONA -10 over Carolina – Here is how this one plays out.  Arizona’s outstanding run defense stops the Panther running game forcing the game into the hands of Jake Delhomme.  They’ll bracket Smith all night and that will be that.  This is an Arizona team who went into the Meadowlands and beat a very good Giants team handily.  They’ll take care of business at home against a bad Carolina team.

Rutgers +7.5 over UCONN-  Uconn is coming off a very emotional week after the murder of their star corner Jazz Howard and the ensuing tough loss at West Virginia.  It is doubtful they will be able to bring the same emotion after last week’s performance.  These two schools have traditionally played tight games and this Rutgers team who only lost to pitt by 7 won’t lose to Uconn by over a TD.  Take the points and run. 

Cincinnati -15.5 over SYRACUSE-  Cincinatti is the cream of the crop in the Big East and has played well in tough road atmospheres like Oregon St and Fresno St.  They’ll easily handle this struggling Syracuse team who has lost their last 2 Big East matchups to WVU and Pitt by 2TDs or more.  Lay the points on the bearcats. 

FLORIDA -15 over Georgia-  This is the week that Tebow and that potent Florida offense finally put it together and start to capitalize in the red zone again.  The public has started to doubt Florida’s ability to cover and now you’ll see Florida snap back and make them pay for it.  Lay the points on the Gators. 

Cal -6.5 over ARIZONA ST. -  After some rough games against Oregon and USC the Golden Bears seem to be back on track as they exploded for 45+ points in their last two outings in easy routs of their opponents.  Yes their last win was over the sorry Washington St. Cougars but their offense will be no match up for the Sun Devils.  Look for Best to have a great day and for Cal to run away with this contest.

NC State
Florida State                   -7                            -10

Marshall
U-C-F                              -3                            -7

Western Mich
Kent State                       pick                         -2.5

Georgia
Florida                             -17                        -15

Southern Miss
Houston                          -9                            -6.5

Arkansas State
Louisville                      -4                             -3

The Take: 
♦  Wise Guy money came in hard for BC, FSU, and UCF.  Those lines opened and moved 3 or more points over the course of the week.   Have the lines moved too much?  Still value left for you to chase as well?  You decide…the Wise Guys have already spoken.
♦  The books opened the Western Michigan/Kent State matchup at a pick and let the smart money take the line where it needed to go.  Those in the know think that Kent State is the more impressive team.  The public does not bet these types of games so you have to believe it will be mostly wise guy cash pushing that line. 
♦  I posted the Florida/Georgia matchup because it seemed odd to me that the line jumped down 2 points.  Florida is a HUGE public team and all season long that number typically goes up as the week goes on even as wise guy money comes in taking the points.  Here I think the public narrative has become that Florida “can’t cover” so this may be the beginnings of a flood of public money coming in on the dog.  Seems to me the perfect week for Florida to bounce back and cover against a shaky Georgia team. 
♦  Wise Guys obviously didn’t like the Houston number knocking it down from 9 to 6.5 very quickly.  Look for Houston to climb back up to 7 or 7.5 by kick off as the public money will come in and bet the other side.  If it gets to 7 or 7.5 I’d jump on the side of the smart money and take the points. 
♦  Lastly, I posted the Louisville/Ark State game because I think this is a great opportunity to take a line that I liked at -4 and jump all over it at -3.  This line, while not moving too dramatically, is moving in the wrong direction.  Snap it up at -3 and take your money to the bank.  Louisville has been a difficult opponent to heavy favorites Kentucky and Uconn and from top to bottom has played a more difficult schedule than A-State.  Throw in that the game is at Papa John’s Stadium and the team from the better conference wins here.

Tonight the Big East will showcase it’s talent on a weeknight to a  national audience for the third consecutive week.  The last time South Florida stepped into the national spotlight they were overmatched by Cincinatti who, despite losing All American Senior QB Tony Pike early in the 2nd half, easily handled the Bulls.  USF followed this up with a road trip to Pitt where they were annihilated 41-14 in a game that was never close.  Pitt’s Bill Stull completed 18/25 for 245 and 2 TDs while the ground game racked up  214 yards on 42 carries for a 5.1 avg per carry.  Dion Lewis had yet another big game accounting for 111 of the 214 yards and 2 TD of his own. 

WVU heads into this contest  after defeating a pesky and highly motivated UCONN team who took the field just days after the murder of their star corner back Jazz Howard.  After battling for 3.5 quarters Noel Devine proved to be too much to contain and the WVU defense stepped up to preserve the win against the emotional Huskies.  Devine finished with 178 yards and 1 TD on 23 carries.  Jarrett Brown made some key throws finishing the game 16/27 for 153 to go along with his 41 rushing yards and 2 TDs. 

USF, after another fast start, has started to stumble as they get to the heart of their Big East schedule including this brutal stretch of Cinci, Pitt, and WVU.  West Virginia will bring a balanced attack and the best player on the field in Devine.  The freshman BJ Daniel, making only his 5th start, will continue to have to learn on the job.  Look for Devine to have a big night as WVU will overmatch USF giving Coach Levitt and the Bulls their 3rd consecutive conference loss. 

The Prophet Picks:  West Virginia 34-14.